Should you select Kyle Pitts at his current value?
Image credit: Getty images / Edward M. Pio RodaSummary: While there is strong consensus on Kyle Pitts’ value in dynasty, the differing opinions on his projections in redraft have Pitts going 20+ picks after other top tight ends like Kittle and Waller. Many of these forecasts are based on how rarely rookie TEs finish well - but comparing Pitts to these previous selections is unwise. We believe drafting Pitts ahead of his current ADP (mid 6th round) is a strong value for your fantasy team.
The fantasy community’s ranking and consequential average draft position of Kyle Pitts puts him squarely in the range of selections where it does not make sense to select a tight end. Elite options are chosen in the first three rounds, and middling options in rounds 4-8 tend to yield the same success rate as dart throws in the later rounds of your draft.
The most common reason for this ranking/ADP of Pitts is that we simply haven’t seen a fantasy tight end finish with elite numbers - ever. Kyle Pitts is different for a variety of reasons. Setting aside how easy it is to evaluate Pitt’s talent and NFL draft capital, we’ll look at why this rookie has the opportunity to finish as an elite tight end you can draft outside of the first five rounds.
The issue with fantasy rookie tight ends:
We’ve been burned on top ten NFL draft pick tight ends over the past 20 years:
A core trend with this group is that they did not receive the target volume necessary to be even a startable fantasy tight end
72 targets (on a 17 game pace) isn’t enough opportunity. The time it takes tight ends to develop in the NFL is longer than many other positions, given the need to block and run routes, as well as rarely having the advantage to line up off the line of scrimmage.
So why can KP have a stronger finish than this, providing an elite return on your round 6 pick that makes him a top tier tight end as a rookie?
The opportunity in front of him:
If rather than comparing Pitts to other rookie tight ends, we simply looked at recent top draft 5 draft pick pass catchers and their opportunity, we can see he might be more comparable to:
Sammy Watkins - 128 targets (22% of total offenses’ targets)
Amari Cooper - 130 targets (21% of total offenses’ targets)
Mike Evans - 122 targets (23% of total offenses’ targets)
Over the past 3 years, Matt Ryan has averaged 616 pass attempts (655 on a 17 game pace). Projecting Pitts to receive similar target volume to the rookies above, he’d see 144 targets - which, while would would set a record for a rookie TE, puts him squarely in range of the target totals of recent elite TE seasons such as Kelce in 2020 (145), Waller in 2020 (145) and Kittle in 2018 (136).